Yankees need bullpen help.

Michael Kay: "It is almost inconceivable... that a Yankees game this good could lose eight straight games... ... to the Red Sox."

News flash: Yankees; run differential is +24, 4th in the AL East. They've allowed the third most runs in the AL. They haven't been that good.

They don't have a reliable 8th-inning reliever, and that's exactly why they lost tonight, sticking with a tired Sabathia through 123 pitches. He faced three batters in the eighth even though his pitch count was just south of 110, and allowed all three to reach. Alfredo Aceves relieved the big lefty and prompty blew the lead. Sabathia now leads the AL in pitches made and pitches per start at 111.

Volcano Z

I'm sure you've all seen this, but just in case...

Epic tantrum by Carlos Zambrano.

Now, I don't have audio of what Big Z was saying, but this comes close, I think:
"I'm out of here? Nah, ump, you're outta here! And this fucking ball's out of here, too! And this glove is outta here! ... What the fuck are you lookin' at, Gatorade machine? Huh!? This is what you get for being a lousy fucking orange yellow crap-dispensing shit, motherfuckin' piece of orange fuckshitfuck!"

It's kind of funny to see Lou Piniella trot out and try to restrain him, then kind of have a sheepish smile on his face as he talks to the umpire. Even Sweet Lou must know he couldn't have topped that.

Zambrano's been suspended six games for the tirade.

Shields and Lidge: examining two hobbled relievers

Case 1: Scot Shields
Shields is arguably the most established setup reliever in baseball. He owns a career 3.03 ERA, and is coming off four consecutive seasons with at least 31 holds, and has 27 relief victories in that span. He was also the go-to man when Francisco Rodriguez was unavailable, collecting 19 saves over the past five seasons. He's consistently pitched in the most high-leverage situations the Angels have encountered.

This season, he has battled patella tendinitis in his left knee, for which he was placed on the disabled list. He's one of the reasons that the Angels' bullpen, usually among the best in the league, is one of the worst. He has three losses and three blown saves, a mediocre 12/15/17.2 K/BB/IP ratio, with the walks being the most alarming.

His velocity and stuff remains pretty good. He still has the boomerang two-seamer he uses to get called strikes, jam right-handed hitters and induce double-play groundballs. He has that sharp slider. So what's wrong?

He's leaving a lot of pitches up in the zone. This is corroborated by his 64% flyball rate (it was 44, 53 and 46% the last three seasons) and a 14.5% K rate (23.9, 24.1 and 14.5%). He's also missing a lot of pitches laterally, which is understandable for a pitcher dealing with pain in his landing leg. Shields is actually fortunate to have an ERA of just 6.62, as his HR/Air ratio is typically around 7-8%, and he's at 3% this year. (This is one of the numbers that tends to remain the same unless there's a fundamental change in the pitcher's approach or effectiveness.)

Shields is expected to be out a month, and Jose Arredondo and Darren Oliver will help set up for Brian Fuentes. What a different back end of the bullpen this has become. Rest usually treats patella tendinitis, so there's reason to think that Shields will be his old self when he comes back.

Arredondo has excellent peripherals (26.6% K/PA, 9.6% BB/PA, and a dazzling 2.13 WHIP) and an impossibly high BABIP (.431). His name has always been whispered in the same paragraph as "closer of the future," so don't be surprised if he hangs onto the primary setup role for the rest of the season. Arredondo's still raw -- he walked in the winning run in Dodger Stadium last week -- but he's one of the most talented young relievers in the majors right now.


Case 2: Brad Lidge
Phillies closer Brad Lidge is battling pain in his surgically repaird right knee, with similar symptoms. He's blown 4 saves, tied for the MLB lead. He owns an ugly 8.85 ERA and a 2.07 WHIP.

Now, you look at his numbers -- 20.1 IP, 22 K, 13 BB, and 29 H -- and the hits jump out at you, as does the fact he has more Ks than IP. It's tempting to write this off as bad luck. But a closer look says there's very little luck involved here, and there is genuine cause for concern.

First, the high hit total masks a low strikeout rate. K/9 is sometimes deceiving, because you can give up 5 walks and 6 hits and strike out the side and still have a lofty 27 K/9, even though you're striking out a lower percentage of batters faced than a guy that fans one in a perfect inning of work. In Lidge's case, his phenomenal K/PA rate (35.6, 30.6, 30.7, and 31.5% the last 4 seasons) is down by two-thirds to a more human 21.4%. He's always been a high-walk pitcher, and his walk rate has remained more or less the same (though it's a hair higher in his two years with Philadelphia than in his last three with the Astros).

The second thing to note is that Lidge was incredibly lucky in 2008. He had a 1.95 ERA and just two blown saves. The key raw stat behind those results is HR/flyball, which was 2% in 2008, but 10% in 2006 and 2007. Lidge allowed flyballs, struck out batters, walked batters, and allowed hits on balls in play in roughly identical rates over those three seasons, and somehow managed to keep the ball in the park after moving to Citizens Bank Park. That screams "fluke" to me, and I'd expect a healthy Brad Lidge to regress toward the 10% rate. It's at 13% now, which is not surprising out of Lidge at less than 100%, pitching in a hitter-friendly environment.

The most important symptom of Lidge's struggles is the same as Shields': a sharply elevated flyball rate. From 53, 57 and 52% the previous three years, it's up to 68% this year. He's leaving pitches up in the zone, which results in more hard-hit line drives and a BABIP (0.390) atypical for a successful major league pitcher. When I watched him against the Yankees, it was astonishing how many thigh-high sliders he was throwing.


Summary
Both these pitchers' lower body problems have the same result: pitches up in the zone, and balls getting into the air, hard. Shields makes a borderline DL stash if your fantasy league counts holds, but I have a hard time trusting that his ERA will boost your fantasy numbers this season. I'd try and sell Lidge based on name value, but the possibilities aren't at all promising: he either continues to pitch through the pain and pitch badly, or he goes on the DL for a few weeks to get the proper treatment and rest on his knee. Both the Angels and Phillies need them healthy to have a prayer come September and October.

Clay Pflibson Zavada

has the best facial hair in the major leagues.



That is all.

FireRobDibble.com?

Some claims on the quality start by Rob Dibble, "analyst" for the Washington Nationals...

• "Six innings, three earned runs is not a quality start, because starting pitchers should go longer." (Dibble, a former closer, never averaged above 6 innings per start in the minors.)
• "A quality start is a stat made up by some statistician or agent." Actually, it was made up by a sports writer. You know some other "made-up" stats? Batting average, ERA, sacrifice flies, pitching wins and saves.
  
• "Five runs in five innings IS a quality start if the starting pitcher 'keeps his team in the game.' " I have no response.

And on Adam Dunn: "I'd just walk him... he's a base-clogger."


Also, as I was writing this, Michael Kay:
"You know, we throw stats at you sometimes, and we don't have a reason why. When Damon bats with one out, he's batting .455. 25 for 55. Now how do you explain that?"
[Damon proceeds to break his bat and ground out weakly.]
It's called sample size, Michael.

I miss FJM.

Three things I don't remember ever seeing before

1. The Rays filled out their lineup card with two third basemen today -- Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist. The intention was to have Longoria DH, but when he didn't take a position in the field, the Rays lost the DH. The pitcher, Andy Sonnanstine is batting third.
   
   
2. The "fake to third, throw to first" move worked. With a full count and 1 out in the first, Max Scherzer caught Chipper Jones (who was running on the 3-1 pitch) cheating off first base, and picked him off. The runner on third base, Yunel Escobar, made a late lunge toward home plate, then retreated back to third, but too late. He was picked off, too. The bizarre maneuver allowed Scherzer to escape the first inning unscathed, having thrown 19 pitches at the time. He hurled 6 shutout innings for his first career win.
   
   
3. A closer pitching on four consecutive calendar days. The Mets' Francisco Rodriguez pitched on May 4, May 5, May 6 and May 7. Then, he pitched on May 12, May 13, May 14 and May 15. The four consecutive days might make sense in a do-or-die playoff situation, except that with all the days off during the playoffs, the situation would never come up. Rodriguez got three outs on all 8 outings, except on May 12, when he got 6 outs. Is he tired? Probably. In those 9 innings, he got 5 strikeouts and allowed 4 walks. His career K/9 is 11.6, and he was visibly trying to pitch to contact on May 15, and threw only a handful of pitches to warm up in the bullpen. The Mets had a save opportunity on May 16, but K-Rod was finally given the day off, with the team calling on J.J. Putz.
   

Bard up; Lopez gone

The Red Sox called up flamethrowing phenom Daniel Bard from Triple-A Pawtuckett today and designated lefty Javier Lopez for assignment.

Bard, a 23-year-old righty, was the closer at Pawtuckett, and many scouts and observers see him as an eventual closer at the major league level. That talk is fueled in part by the refusal of current closer Jonathan Papelbon to discuss a long-term deal with the Red Sox, and his desire to get big, big, big money in free agency. For now, Bard will join what is a stellar group of electric right-handed Sox relievers, Ramon Ramirez, Manny Delcarmen and Takashi Saito. Don't be at all surprised if Bard is the best of this group by the All-Star break.

Bard throws a four-seam fastball that touches 100 mph, an effective two-seam at 93-95 mph, and a slider. He has 29 strikeouts in 16 minor league innings this year, and only 6 hits and 5 walks. In fact, he's struck out exactly one half of all hitters he's faced this year, the highest rate of any pitcher in the International League. In one outing, he retired the top of the opposing lineup in just 9 pitches, fanning all three batters.

Bard really struggled after being drafted in the first round by the Sox and starting his pro career as a starter. Once they decided he would be groomed as a late-inning reliever, though, he was lights out. He had a 35.7% K/batter-faced ratio to go with a 1.48 ERA between Single-A Greenville and Double-A Portland in 2008.

Bill James has always stressed that strikeout rate is the most important indicator of future success for a young pitcher, and statisticians agree that strikeout and walk rates are better predictors of future ERA than current ERA. To give you how insane Bard's K rates are, here are the AL and NL leaders in K/batter among pitchers with at least 10 innings.

American League:

1. Matt Thornton: 38.0% (3.27 ERA)
   
2. Jose Mijares: 34.8% (1.59 ERA)
   
3. Mariano Rivera: 34.7% (3.97 ERA)
4. Jose Arredondo: 33.9% (5.27 ERA)
5. Robinson Tejeda: 32.7% (1.69 ERA)
   

National League:

1. Jonathan Broxton: 50.0% (0.64 ERA)
2. Kiko Calero: 36.1 % (1.69 ERA)
3. Mike Gonzalez: 35.8% (3.55 ERA)
4. Rafael Soriano: 35.2% (1.29 ERA)
5. Heath Bell: 35.0% (0.00 ERA)
   

There are a couple of stragglers on the above lists -- I'm not sure if Mijares and Tejeda can stay as dominant once the league gets used to the former and learns to lay off balls in the dirt from the latter -- and you can chalk that up to small sample size. Once you have about 100 batters faced, though, the highest K rates usually belong to the guys with the filthiest stuff. If Bard can translate just a modest share of that Triple-A strikeout rate to the bigs, he's going to be an awful lot of fun to watch for the next few months.



Lopez really struggled this year with a 9.25 ERA after posting ERAs of 3.10 and 2.43 in his first two seasons. Though very effective against lefties when he's on, he walks too many batters (over 4 per 9 innings) much like another castoff lefty, J.C. Romero. It's not likely that Boston fans will miss him in the short-term, as Lopez was smack middle of three memorable disasters this season:

• Lopez walked 3 batters and took the loss against Oakland on April 14 against Oakland after the rest of the bullpen had pitched 10 scoreless frames to bail out Daisuke Matsuzaka.
• On April 28, coming in to pitch a 8-8 tie in the bottom of the 9th in Cleveland, Lopez dropped a routine toss from Kevin Youkilis in what would have been an inning-ending putout; the winning run came around to score on the error.
• On April 30, he allowed 5 runs and recorded just one out against Tampa Bay in mop-up ninth-inning duties of an eventual 14-0 loss; he was so ineffective that the Red Sox asked right fielder Jonathan Van Every to relieve him.

Those low-ERA years from Lopez were aided very much by his bullpen mates, who stranded many a runner coming in to bail out the erratic lefty. His FIP in 2007 and 2008 were 4.30 and 4.23.

The 31-year-old side-armer will very likely land a major-league job in short order. There's a chance that like Romero, a change of scenery and coaching staff will make him more than a serviceable LOOGY (lefty one-out guy). The Red Sox have 10 days to trade him, but if they fail to do so the Yankees might be interested.